The basics of cruising will never change. The sun, pool, and a drink in hand? For many, it’s the entire appeal of taking a cruise.
Everything else on the ship? Well, you only need to look at how big the difference is in cruising today versus just a decade or two ago to see how much things can change. From relatively modest ships with maybe a pool or two, today stepping on a cruise ship is like stepping into a luxurious amusement park. There’s almost nothing you can’t do.
That got me thinking about what cruising might look like in another 10 years from now. Having covered the industry for years and sailed dozens of cruises, here are my predictions for what’s on tap for the coming decade.
Bigger Ships… But With a Twist
If there’s one trend that’s been the most obvious in cruising, it’s that cruise ships have gotten larger. A ship built in the 1990s might be around 75,000 gross tons. Now the biggest ships come in at 250,000 gross tons. Yeah, that’s just a little difference. Over the next decade, expect that trend toward bigger to continue… albeit with a slight distinction.
I don’t see cruise ships getting much larger at the top end. There’s just a size that becomes too much for ports. So I actually see the industry at the limit of what’s going to be built.
Instead, I expect the newer ships to continue to come in at the high end of the range so that the average cruise ship size continues to increase as older and smaller ships are retired. So while I don’t see a 300,000 gross ton ship with 12,000 passengers, I do see new ships being on the higher end as far as size.
If you’re a fan of those smaller ships, sorry, but there’s no sign the major lines are going to roll out 100,000 gross ton ships with 2,500 passengers anytime soon.
Continued Rising Prices Around the Ship
The two guarantees in life are death and taxes. These days it can also feel like there’s a third one too — and that’s higher prices everywhere.
I think the next 10 years will see that continue to be the trend in cruising. Those days when ships were finally back to sailing after the pandemic there were some wild deals. I sailed one Carnival trip for just $14 a day in cruise fare.
Those days are over. I wouldn’t say cruising is expensive, but while you can find some cheap trips if you are flexible, prices are definitely being pushed higher. And it’s not just cruise fare, but the cost of things on the ship as well.
Add in gratuity and it’s nearly $20 for a cocktail on a cruise ship these days. Internet, gratuity, specialty restaurants… they’ve all gone up in price.
I see no reason for this to end. Even if the industry were to slow down price hikes, the push to please Wall Street should keep the cruise companies focused on increasing the amount of money they make.
Packaged Deals Become More Common
While I think prices move higher, there is some good news if you’re someone that likes a deal and hates being nickeled and dimed. A trend I’m seeing is that cruise lines are testing and rolling out more and more all-inclusive packages.
People love seeing a low price on a cruise. But they dislike having to then open up their wallet for gratuities, drinks, meals, excursions.
A happy medium are all-inclusive packages like Princess Plus or Celebrity’s All-Included. These offer a package price with things like drinks and wi-fi — and often more — bundled together. Yes, it costs extra, but it’s one transaction and it’s priced lower than if you bought the items separately. The cruise line gets more money and passengers spend less than they would have otherwise. It’s a win-win.
NCL has made bundles a part of its strategy for years with the Free at Sea offer. I’ve noticed Carnival testing them out from time to time, along with other lines.
Private destinations Are No Longer a “Side Dish”
Private islands and destinations have been around forever in cruising. But a decade ago, they were really just sleepy spots that served as additional stops. A “side dish” instead of a main course.
It’s already trending toward this, but over the next decade I expect it to be clear that the private destinations are the main course, at least in the Caribbean. You’ve seen Royal Caribbean turn CocoCay into a cruise amusement park. Carnival built Celebration Key and 2.4 million people visited in its first year. NCL’s Great Stirrup Cay is now revamped to include a massive waterpark and MSC’s Ocean Cay is massive and literally didn’t exist a few years ago.
Cruise lines like that they can control the experience here and have the opportunity to make the islands an extension of the cruise ship… including being able to make more money. Passengers like that they have a spot that’s custom made for them.
Expect the destinations to get larger, increase in number, and increase in prominence in itineraries.
Cruising EVERYWHERE
Think of a cruise and you likely picture the Caribbean. That may change in the coming decade. Cruise lines can already take you literally anywhere, including on around-the-world cruises. I expect that in the coming years the number and popularity of these trips will soar.
Frankly, there is discussion that the Caribbean is saturated with ships. So if cruise lines want to grow, they will have to cast their lots elsewhere.
Alaska has already seen tremendous growth with every major line, including newcomers like Virgin and MSC, starting up cruises there. But there’s Europe, Asia, Africa… and that’s not even to mention river cruises. Celebrity is building out river cruises as an entirely new segment of its business.
In the coming decade, cruising everywhere is a major theme I’m seeing.
“K-Shaped” Economy Comes to Cruises
You might have heard about the “K-shaped economy” where wealthier households are doing better and the lower part of that “K” is stagnating. That’s not ending just at the shore’s end.
I see cruising getting more K-shaped too with high-end features. Already there are spots like NCL’s The Haven or MSC’s Yacht Club. There’s more segmentation with specialty restaurants, butlers for high-end rooms, and even high-end cruise lines like Ritz-Carlton. Private destinations will rent you a cabana for a day for more than many people pay in rent for a month.
Don’t get me wrong, there will always be a place for budget cruisers. Filling up thousands of rooms week after week on a ship means you have to appeal to everyone.
But in the drive to earn more revenue, it’s those high-end cruisers that spend the bucks. Expect there to be more catering to them.
The Rise of “Second-Hand” Cruise Lines
A cruise ship has a life of about 25-30 years for a line. After that, the maintenance, upkeep, and the difference in experience from newer ships gets to be too much. In that case, the ship is retired — either sold off to another company or scrapped.
In the next decade, there will start to be more and more ships that reach retirement age as the early 2000s seems to be when the boom in new ships really started to take hold.
I envision that instead of just being scrapped, we will see more cruise lines take advantage and come to the market. For instance, Margaritaville at Sea uses retired ships for its fleet. It’s about to expand to a third cruise ship sailing from a third port.
In the coming years there is going to be an opportunity for new lines to enter this niche of the market as I see there being some deals on older ships from the major lines.
Niche Cruises Soar in Popularity
Have you ever heard of 70,000 Tons of Metal? What about Chefs Making Waves? Or maybe you’ve sailed (at least heard of) the Big Nude Boat.
There are all niche cruises. A company charters a ship and crew and then puts a theme on that particular trip. Music cruises are popular, but there are niches of anything you can imagine from gay cruises to poker cruises, cruises for true crime fans, cooking cruises, and yes even nudist and sexually-themed trips.
But these cruises are still, well, niche. Most people haven’t sailed one. But I see them soaring in popularity. As cruising grows with more ships, it needs to continue to draw in new passengers, including those who might not otherwise sail. There are plenty of people that wouldn’t take a normal cruise, but a heavy metal cruise to see their favorite bands? That may entice them.
A New Port of Call in the Caribbean
One prediction I feel comfortable making about the next decade is that somewhere in the Caribbean is going to be a new port of call. And if I had to guess, it’s going to be on the western side of the Caribbean.
Royal Caribbean had a massive new Perfect Day Mexico planned before it was scuttled by the Mexican government. But I don’t think they will give up, nor will other cruise lines or even ports that would welcome tourist dollars. And it’s needed, badly.
Here’s the thing, while Florida is the cruise capital of the world, Galveston is the largest departure port outside of Florida. The Texas port just opened its fourth terminal and has long-term plans to open even more.
But the number of ports you can reach from Texas in a week-long sailing is pretty limited. It’s almost always a mix of Cozumel, Roatan, Belize, and Costa Maya. There’s a huge lack of cruise ports in the area. That’s an opportunity for someone that I expect will be taken advantage of.
